![]() For cars and vans, which make up the majority of carbon emissions from transport, the research has shown that existing policy Including the Road to Zero strategy may neither hit the target nor make the early gains needed for a 1.5☌ trajectory. Implications of a 2030 phase-out dateīy comparing the future scenarios for phasing out of fossil fuel cars and vans with wider social change and reduced demand for mobility our research has shown that the transport sector has a mammoth task ahead if the net-zero challenge is to be taken seriously across all sectors of the economy. Policy action is urgently needed to reduce the demand for mobility and car ownership and achieve an earlier phase-out of fossil fuel vehicles, which are all needed for a Paris-compliant trajectory. However, our research, published in the journal Energy Policy and delivered as part of the UK Energy Research Center programme on Disruption and Continuity has found that neither existing transport policies nor the pledge to bring forward the phase-out of fossil fuel vehicles are sufficient to hit carbon reduction targets or make the early gains needed to meet the net-zero targets for cars and vans. Several countries and cities have committed to phasing out conventional vehicles between 20, with manufacturers also announcing targets. To accelerate the transition to a low carbon transport system, the phasing out of the sale of new conventional gasoline and diesel vehicles by a given date is one of a number of potentially ‘disruptive’ policies that have been announced over the past five years. Switching from diesel accounts for a small proportion of this increase the main culprit is a continued swing towards larger passenger cars, particularly Sports Utility Vehicles (SUVs). The shock comes in the revelation that the average tailpipe CO2 emissions from new passenger cars has been increasing for the past three years. The technical challenge of decarbonising heavy goods vehicles, ships and aircraft renders this unsurprising, at least in part. Over the past twelve months, in the UK it has maintained its onerous accolade of being the only sector to have increased its energy demand and CO2 emissions compared to 1990 levels. The transport sector has had an almost complete dependence on oil since the 1970s. The current Government consultation and impending publication of a ‘Transport Decarbonisation Plan’ means now is a good time to consider the implications of these strategies in a net-zero world that requires emissions to decrease faster and further than ever before. The recent shift to an earlier target year of 2035 – or even 2032 – and to include hybrid vehicles has been welcomed in some quarters but deemed too difficult and disruptive in others. Like other countries around the world, the UK has pledged to phase out the sale of new fossil fuel cars and vans. ![]() Policy – and society – urgently need to engage with lowering the demand for mobility
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